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RFQ DUE APR 1 2026 · Hillsborough County Aviation Authority · Tampa International Airport
Enginuity
Master Plan Scenario Intelligence — Tampa International Airport (TPA) 2024–2044
21.5M
2023 Pax
34.8M
2044 Forecast
20yr
Plan Horizon
$2.1B
Cap Program
3
Phases
📊
Demand Oracle
Passenger forecasting, airline market analysis, capacity trigger thresholds
▼
Base Case
2028 Forecast
24.2M pax
2034 Forecast
29.1M pax
2044 Forecast
34.8M pax
CAGR 2024–2034
2.9%
Capacity Threshold
2029
Low Demand
2028 Forecast
22.1M pax
2034 Forecast
25.4M pax
2044 Forecast
28.0M pax
CAGR 2024–2034
1.5%
Capacity Threshold
2033
High Demand
2028 Forecast
26.8M pax
2034 Forecast
33.5M pax
2044 Forecast
42.2M pax
CAGR 2024–2034
4.5%
Capacity Threshold
2027
Airline Market Share (2023)
Southwest Airlines
42%
United Airlines
18%
American Airlines
16%
Delta Air Lines
14%
Spirit / Frontier
5%
Other / Charter
5%
Demand Scenario
Base Case (2.9% CAGR)
Low Demand (1.5% CAGR) — post-consolidation
High Demand (4.5% CAGR) — FL migration boom
Demand Shock — recession or pandemic -30%
Southwest Market Shift
Stable (42% share)
Growth (+5% share — hub expansion)
Decline (-10% — consolidation/route cuts)
Crisis (-20% — acquisition disruption)
New Market Entry
None
New international carrier (LATAM, transatlantic)
ULCC expansion (Avelo, Breeze)
Cargo carrier conversion (Amazon Air, UPS)
Cargo Growth Target
Base (170K→250K tons by 2044)
High (170K→380K — logistics hub)
Flat (170K — no new facilities)
Additional Context / Constraints
Run Demand Analysis
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📅
Meridian
Phased development schedule, critical path, milestones and gate triggers
▼
Phase 1 · 2024–2028
Gate Expansion
+12 gates (C/D)
People Mover
Extension to new gates
Checkpoint
TSA checkpoint expansion
Budget
$680M
Risk
LOW
Phase 2 · 2029–2034
CONRAC
Consolidated rental car facility
Cargo Hub Ph.1
New 300K sq ft facility
Ground Trans.
Multi-modal hub
Budget
$850M
Risk
MEDIUM
Phase 3 · 2035–2044
Terminal D
New 30-gate terminal or satellite
Rail Link
SunRail/HART connection
Intl Gates
+6 international gates
Budget
$590M
Risk
HIGH
Development Concept
Organic expansion — incremental gate adds, no new terminal
Satellite concourse — people mover extension, 20-gate island
New Terminal D — west-side landside 30 gates
Hybrid — satellite 2029 + Terminal D 2038
Phase 1 Start Trigger
Demand-based (85% capacity utilization)
Fixed date (Q1 2026 groundbreaking)
Airline agreement (Southwest gate commitment)
Funding milestone (FAA AIP grant approval)
NEPA / Environmental Path
Categorical Exclusion (CE) — minor works, fastest
Environmental Assessment (EA) — 18–24 months
Full EIS — 3–5 years, major expansion
Total Capital Budget ($M)
Special Constraints or Milestones
Run Schedule Analysis
⟳ Gemini overloaded — retrying with backoff…
🗣
Chorus
Stakeholder simulation — HCAA, airlines, FAA, CBP, community, government
▼
HCAA
Priority
Revenue + capacity
Leverage
HIGH
Southwest
Priority
Hub dominance
Leverage
HIGH
FAA / TSA
Priority
Safety / grant
Leverage
HIGH
Community
Priority
Noise / jobs
Leverage
MEDIUM
Focus Stakeholder
HCAA (Hillsborough County Aviation Authority)
Southwest Airlines (42% market share — dominant carrier)
United Airlines (18% share — international ambitions)
American Airlines (16% share)
Delta Air Lines (14% share)
FAA / TSA (safety, grant assurances, checkpoint capacity)
CBP (US Customs — international gate requirements)
Hillsborough County / City of Tampa (economic development)
Florida DOT (ground access, SunRail)
Community Groups (noise, environment, Westshore Business District)
Airport Concessionaires (F&B, retail, parking)
Scenario Trigger
Phase 1 gate expansion announcement
CONRAC construction displaces rental car operators (Phase 2)
Southwest requests preferential gate assignment
New international carrier awarded gates (United LATAM routes)
HCAA proposes $2.1B bond issuance
Terminal D approved — community noise hearing
TSA staffing crisis — checkpoint hours cut 30%
Southwest acquisition / consolidation rumor
SunRail corridor extension approved through airport
FAA NextGen procedure change reduces runway capacity
Additional Context
Run Stakeholder Simulation
⟳ Gemini overloaded — retrying with backoff…
🗺
Atlas
Concept analysis — terminal, landside, cargo, multi-modal, sustainability
▼
Concept A — Organic
Revenue
7/10
Community Impact
8/10
Regulatory Risk
LOW
Capex
$680M
Concept B — Satellite
Revenue
8/10
Community Impact
6/10
Regulatory Risk
MEDIUM
Capex
$1.1B
Concept C — Terminal D
Revenue
10/10
Community Impact
4/10
Regulatory Risk
HIGH
Capex
$1.6B
Primary Concept
Concept A — Organic incremental expansion
Concept B — New satellite concourse (20 gates, people mover ext.)
Concept C — Terminal D (30 gates, new west landside)
Hybrid A+B — Organic Phase 1, Satellite Phase 2
Hybrid B+C — Satellite 2029, Terminal D 2038
Priority Weighting
Revenue optimization
Passenger experience / LOS
Community / noise mitigation
Sustainability / carbon neutral 2035
Cargo / logistics growth
Balanced (equal weight)
Multi-modal Integration
Road-only (status quo HOV/express lanes)
SunRail Phase 3 airport connector (2032)
BRT / Tampa Bay Connect bus rapid transit
Full intermodal hub (rail + bus + AV + rideshare)
Lease Term Horizon
20-year master plan (2024–2044)
30-year long-range (2024–2054)
Phase 1 only (2024–2030)
Additional Parameters
Run Concept Analysis
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⚡
Oracle
Robustness analysis — demand shocks, airline risk, climate, funding, regulation
▼
Demand Shock
None — base case growth
Mild recession (-15% demand, 18-month recovery)
Severe recession (-30%, 36-month recovery)
Pandemic-scale shock (-60%, 5-year recovery)
Airline Consolidation Scenario
Status quo — no consolidation
Southwest restructuring / Chapter 11 (Elliott acquisition)
Spirit collapse — mid-market gap opens
United/Delta code-share expansion — Southwest squeezed
Major carrier TPA hub upgrade (United or American)
Climate / Sea Level Risk
IPCC baseline (0.5m sea level rise by 2044)
Moderate (1.0m — Tampa Bay flood zone expansion)
Extreme (1.5m + Cat 4+ storm surge — runway flood scenario)
Thermal stress only (runway surface temp / operation limits)
Funding Risk
Full AIP grants secured — no gap
Partial AIP — 20% gap, bond financing required
Federal freeze — airport infrastructure bill delayed
Bond market disruption — rate spike delays Phase 2
Regulatory Risk
No material changes — FAA current rules apply
NextGen expansion — runway capacity changes ±10%
NEPA reform — EA/EIS accelerated by federal policy
CBP staffing cuts — international operations constrained
Risk Tolerance (1–10)
3 — Conservative (minimize downside)
5 — Moderate (balanced risk/return)
7 — Aggressive (maximize growth opportunity)
9 — Speculative (high risk, transformational upside)
Run Robustness Analysis
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