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ACTIVE RFP · Los Angeles World Airports · VNY 16425 Hart Street
Enginuity
Scenario Planning Intelligence — Van Nuys Airport Lease Redevelopment
10
Acres
Non-FBO
Operation Type
6
RFPs at VNY
35
Acres LAWA Release
30yr
Tenant Displacing
📊
DEMAND ORACLE
Bidder scenarios, revenue per acre, trigger thresholds
▼
Signature Aviation
Est. Rent/Acre/Yr
$185K
Capital Investment
$45M
Hangar Capacity
40+ jets
Operational Model
Full-service jet
FAA Risk
HIGH
Atlantic Aviation
Est. Rent/Acre/Yr
$165K
Capital Investment
$35M
Hangar Capacity
30 jets
Operational Model
Mixed GA/jet
FAA Risk
MEDIUM
Aeroplex / Centerline
Est. Rent/Acre/Yr
$120K
Capital Investment
$18M
Hangar Capacity
20 mixed
Operational Model
Hybrid prop+jet
FAA Risk
LOW
Select Primary Bidder Scenario
Signature Aviation — Full Jet Conversion
Atlantic Aviation — Mixed GA/Jet
Aeroplex/Centerline — Hybrid Operator
Projected Annual Rent ($/acre)
$150K
Current SW Aviation Rent ($/acre/yr)
Jet Operations/Day Target
50
Additional Context
Run Demand Analysis
⏱
MERIDIAN
Phased development timeline — transition, construction, operations
▼
Phase 0 — Tenant Transition (Months 0–12)
Southwest Aviation lease termination, existing tenant relocation, environmental baseline assessment, CEQA initial study filing
Phase 1 — Entitlements & Design (Months 6–18)
VNY Specific Plan amendment review, FAA Part 13/16 compliance filing, CEQA EIR process, community engagement (VNY CAC, neighborhood councils)
Phase 2 — Demolition & Site Prep (Months 18–24)
Existing structure demolition, Hayvenhurst lot integration, utility infrastructure upgrades, taxiway reconfiguration
Phase 3 — Construction (Months 24–42)
Hangar construction (12,500+ lb aircraft rated), terminal/FBO building, ramp and apron paving, fuel farm installation
Phase 4 — Operations Launch (Months 42–48)
FAA certification, tenant move-in, phased ramp-up of jet operations, community monitoring program activation
Development Concept
Full Jet FBO Conversion
Hybrid Prop + Jet
Boutique Private Terminal
SW Aviation Transition Scenario
Cooperative — Negotiated exit with relocation
Contested — Litigation-driven, 12–24 month delay
Holdover — Month-to-month during construction
CEQA Timeline Assumption
Mitigated Negative Declaration (6–9 months)
Full EIR Required (18–24 months)
EIR + Legal Challenge (24–36 months)
Construction Budget ($M)
$35M
Run Timeline Analysis
🎭
CHORUS
Stakeholder simulation — interests, positions, influence mapping
▼
Pro-Development
LAWA Executive Staff
POWER
Signature Aviation
BIDDER
Atlantic Aviation
BIDDER
LA City Council (Dist. 6)
POLITICAL
Opposition / Concerned
Southwest Aviation
LITIGANT
VNY CAC
COMMUNITY
Encino NC
COMMUNITY
FAA Grants Division
REGULATOR
Focus Stakeholder
LAWA — Airport Operator
Southwest Aviation — Existing Tenant
Signature Aviation — Potential Bidder
Atlantic Aviation — Potential Bidder
FAA — Federal Regulator
VNY Citizens Advisory Council
Encino Neighborhood Council
Van Nuys Neighborhood Council
LA City Council — District 6
Scenario to Simulate
Full jet conversion announced
Hybrid prop/jet proposal presented
Rent more than doubles for all tenants
FAA Part 16 complaint filed
CEQA legal challenge initiated
Southwest Aviation class action filed
Additional Stakeholder Context
Run Stakeholder Simulation
🗺
ATLAS
Development concepts — scored on revenue, community, regulatory risk, FAA compliance
▼
Concept A: Full Jet FBO
Revenue Potential
9/10
Community Impact
2/10
Regulatory Risk
8/10
FAA Compliance
3/10
Concept B: Hybrid Prop+Jet
Revenue Potential
6/10
Community Impact
6/10
Regulatory Risk
4/10
FAA Compliance
8/10
Concept C: Boutique Terminal
Revenue Potential
7/10
Community Impact
5/10
Regulatory Risk
5/10
FAA Compliance
6/10
Primary Concept to Analyze
Concept A: Full Jet FBO
Concept B: Hybrid Prop+Jet
Concept C: Boutique Private Terminal
Compare All Three Concepts
Weighting Priority
Maximize Revenue
Balanced Approach
Minimize Regulatory Risk
Community Acceptance Priority
Hayvenhurst Lot Integration
Combined with Hart St (full 10+ acres)
Separate development phasing
Excluded — too legally contested
Lease Term Assumption
30-year ground lease
40-year ground lease
50-year ground lease
Run Concept Analysis
🔮
ORACLE
Robustness analysis — Specific Plan, FAA ruling, litigation outcomes
▼
Uncertainty 1: Specific Plan
2006 VNY Specific Plan under revision. New leases before update = legal gray zone. Amendment could restrict or enable jet operations.
Uncertainty 2: FAA Part 13/16
Grant assurances require equal access for all aeronautical uses. Excluding props for jets may trigger FAA enforcement and loss of AIP funding.
Uncertainty 3: Litigation
Southwest Aviation threatened class action. CEQA challenges from community groups. Hayvenhurst lot zoning authority legally contested.
Specific Plan Outcome
Favorable — Allows jet conversion
Restrictive — Limits jet operations
Delayed — No update for 3+ years
Hybrid — Allows mixed use only
FAA Ruling Outcome
Compliant — No grant issues
Conditional — Must maintain prop access
Violation — Grant funding at risk
Litigation Outcome
All suits dismissed
Settlement — tenant relocation costs
Injunction — 18+ month delay
Class action certified — major liability
Risk Tolerance
Moderate
Run Robustness Analysis
Overview
Site
Scenarios
Output